Million Videos Sold

The Internet is a bit abuzz this morning with Apple’s announcement that they had sold one million videos in about 20 days since the launch of the video iPod.

Color me skeptical about how meaningful this really is. Having been involved with digital video over Internet since it’s inception, and closely involved with the leading video services on the Internet, I continue to doubt whether watching video on small screens (either iPods or mobile phones) will ever become a significant, mainstream activity. Music on portable devices has exploded because the  sound quality is hardly affected; carrying your iPod around is not dissimilar to carrying around a decent stereo.

Not true with video content. It’s just not at all like the experience of watching on a television. Of course there are some scenarios where the quality of experience is less important, and portability trumps: say, getting news immediately, wherever you are; or watching music videos (especially if you’re a teenager); or some forms of viral video. But I think these are all likely to remain non-mainstream experiences.

Distribution of TV programs via DVD will be the mainstream experience for the foreseeable future. A far more interesting, and beneficial, product from Apple would be a service and hardware combo that allows me to get DVD quality television shows downloaded to my computer, and then relayed via Airport or Airport Express to my television. Lot’s of hacks out there for this now, and talk about how to use the Mini. But a simple product that works out of the box combined with quality programming would be a huge step forward, and much more important than what we’re seeing with the video iPod.

Why Blog? Part II

When I started this blog at the beginning of the year, I wrote an initial post trying to answer this question.

Now that the experiment — no, market research, really — has been going some eight months, I thought it might be a good time to revisit the question.

First thought: it is harder work, and takes more time, than I would have guessed at the beginning. Even trying to write in the more colloquial, conversational, and less rigorous form takes time and effort. And for what? And why? I am not sure I can answer those questions, and for me personally, I do not see any real, tangible gain — at least at this point — that outweighs the burden of the work. And I write that as someone who genuinely likes to write.

Second thought: as a reader, as I have noted in other posts, I find a very large portion of the blogs that I read incredibly unsatisfying. On the positive side, the trade blogs (particularly in digital media) are very, very useful. Particularly the offhand gossip about start-ups and watching meme trends, both of which make competitive research as I start my new venture much easier, and faster. But most of the rest, including the top blogs as proclaimed by technorati and others, I find increasingly tedious and useless.

One cannot extrapolate a market trend from a purely individual perspective, but I have wondered if these views are shared by others, and if so, what this portends for blogging and "participatory media" generally. It all reminds me of a previous bubble which came to nought in 1998-1999, when we thought self-publishing sites like Goecities and the Globe and Tripod and Angelfire would change the dynamic of the web, when of course they didn’t.

It also reminds me of Real circa 1997-99. We were thrilled by the emergence of hundreds of thousands of programmers forming our "long tail" — audio and video publishers rushing to the Net, creating or re-purposing a hugely diverse schmorgasborg of multimedia programming. That excitement gave way in 2000 to the hard realities of life and business; why would these folks continue to create or re-purpose that programming if it took work, and didn’t pay dividends or generate revenues.

I think blogging and various forms of participatory media will continue to exist, for sure; the question is how big a force it will be in the end. I think, ultimately, it will come down to money. For me, as there isn’t money or other value to be gained, I probably will end this experiment in blogging for a while. Too many other things to do!

Dirty Tricks DNA

The reaction of the Republican right, and especially bloggers on the right-side longitudes, to today’s indictments is not surprising, but shocking nevertheless. The reaction, found on some blogs and heard in reactions on the radio and television, can be summarized as: This is really "just Martha Stewart stuff." You’re hearing from almost every Republican operative and spinmeister, "How important is this if he didn’t indict on the underlying charge of outing a covert CIA operative."

Astonishingly, truly, given Patrick Fitzgerald’s stated theory of his case: that Scooter Libby completely invented a false story to tell the FBI, the Grandy Jury, and the Department of Justice prosecutors about the naming of Valerie Plame: that he told them — even though he had discussed her identity at least three to four times in June 2003 with Vice President Cheney, an Undersecretary of State, Ari Fleischer and a CIA briefer, and had actively sought out information about Wilson’s trip and any involvement of his wife — that he told them he had first heard about her name from other journalists in an offhand, almost innocent way.

The Republican reaction to the charges is astonishing because it just further buttresses the sense that many leading Republicans are totally willing to countenance dirty tricks, some of them criminal, to achieve their ends, to avoid real debate about tough issues, and are unwilling to really acknowledge how serious these charges are. If it was the first time this had occurred, it might not be so troubling. But there is, unfortunately, now a long legacy of this, stretching back to McCarthy and Nixon’s red-baiting in the 1950s, continuing through Watergate, resurfacing in Iran-Contra, and now in this case. It makes one wonder whether there is something the political make-up, indeed DNA, of Republicans that lead them to tolerate this.

I say this all reluctantly, as I have worked in the past for a great Republican senator, and have many friends who are still actively engaged in politics as Republicans. They are all good, honest people. But for too long, in too many administrations, they’ve tolerated the McCarthys, the Nixons, the Oliver North’s, and been too willing to engage in questionable behavior to suppress legimitate, needed debate. At great cost, in retrospect, to the country.

Brook Farm

Novelist Ian McEwan, in an interview with The Independent, once noted his "distrust of Utopian deams." It was a central theme in his novel Saturday (a book, frankly, somewhat middling quality to McEwan’s other novels).

I have thought about the line frequently in the past year as I’ve gotten re-immersed in the world wide web, and re-immersed as a result in some of the utopianism in the hyping of blogs and participatory media. Two recent bloggers posed good, thoughtful questions about this underlying utopianism: Nicholas Carr’s "Amorality of Web 2.0" post (well trod by this point) and Om Malik’s piece on "Web 2.0, Community and Commerce."

While they have provoked some good debate, they have also brought out responses from the Utopians. I’ll pick on one post in particular which so perfectly captures the rapturousness surrounding participatory media:

There are so many ways we can screw it up. Spam, hate, stupidity,
and control can do that. But if everyone behaves the right way, then we
create great whole larger than the sums of their parts; every
capitalized entity above proves that. But we’re still trying to figure
out what the rules are, what “the right way” means.

The truth
is that we’re doing nothing less than creating a new society and we’re
still figuring out what the rules and economies of that society are.

It’s funny, we’ve seen so much of this before, identical if not in detail at least in spirit: the belief that it was all new, that laws of physics and customs of thousands of years were to be rendered obsolete. We’ve seen it with the fashionable memes of the moment such as push, e-commerce, community, the new economy, the long tail, "broadband" then "mobile" and so many others.

The truly amusing, if not ironic, thing in all of this millenial, Utopian rhetoric is that it’s really been about the money: concocted mostly by our good vc friends and their cohorts the conference organizers, and eagerly embraced by all of us trying to build and sell companies (let’s be honest, hardly anyone is building them to go pubic anymore), or to get our companies more highly valued and sell stock, and so on. The Utopianism usually vanishes shortly after the stroke of luck, the stock sale, or the acquisition by Yahoo!/Google/Newscorp. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!

If you strip it all down, dump the bullshit meme-hyping and sometimes resulting utopianism, what really matters at the end of the day are the companies who have built things that make our lives better in some significant way. We’re willing to use their products or services, even pay for them, despite the fact they make the company’s founders into billionaires because they give us something we need or value, and do it so much better than their competitors. We could care less about who owns our clickstreams, or whether we’re participating or not.

For me, so far, the list of consumer Internet companies who have done that is astonishingly short: Yahoo! (for the initial free webmail and directory service), Amazon, Google, Apple (for the ipod, natch, and the powerbook), and eBay. They each provided me with a useful service and did it better than what the others offered. The rest — the endless list of companies and accompanying memes, some of them bought and some of them not — all sound and fury signifying, for the most part, nothing.

Only from the MSM

The blogosphere — especially those found in the right wing, pro-Iraq war longitudes — was full of lots of sound and fury about the how the MSM and the "liberal media" were using the 2000th death in Iraq as a propaganda tool. Michelle Malkin, whose body has clearly been inhabited by Joe McCarthy, was particularly hysterical.

Well, lo and behold, where did I find the most provocative and surprising analysis of this milestone? On the New York Times, natch!

Democrats and Taxes

An interesting confluence of media inputs prompts this post about the Democrats and taxation. One was an op-ed piece in today’s WaPo by David Broder, the other a hilarious speech by Thomas Frank heard on NPR (haven’t been able to find a free version, paid for audio here).

Broder basically asks what plan the Democrats will propose to right the fiscal wreck of the Bush administation and the bloated deficits it has offered the country. The answer, from the DLC, is "short-term tax increases in return for long-term savings on entitlement
programs and improvements in the administration of government."

Frank’s radio lecture was basically a recapitulation of the themes of his book; how Republicans have won over working class voters with "moral values" rhetoric, despite the fact the Republican economic agenda is antithetic to their well-being.

I believe Frank is correct in some degree in his diagnosis, but his proposed cure — Democrats being Democrats, and offering a traditionally liberal economic agenda — would probably result in Walter Mondale/Michael Dukakis electoral drubbings.

The key issue here is taxes. The Republicans’ key economic plank that has appealed to working class voters (and many, many others) is "lower taxes." Most voters already feel like they pay a lot to the government when it’s all added up (federal income tax, social security, state income tax, property tax, and so on). Republicans have cleverly and effectively used the issue as a wedge for twenty five years.

This is not an issue most Democrats intuitively understand, so classicly illustrated in Broder’s column. Our knee-jerk reaction is to balance the budget through higher taxes. A year ago, commiserating over and analysing the 2004 election results with college friends, one, a senior political correspondent for the WaPo, asked (heretically!): "Don’t we already pay too much in taxes?" I was living in the UK at that time, thought about his question, and realized that indeed I was paying about the same (or less) in total taxes than I had living in the United States when local, social security, and property taxes were all included. And, arguably, I was getting far more value for my taxes in the UK — free medical care, free education (more or less) for my children had we stayed, a far better public transportation network, lower crime.

Balancing the budget, and getting our financial house in order, must be priorities for the Democrats. But it would be a mistake for the Democrats to even think about tax increases at this point, except very small, targeted ones that don’t affect most voters (like the estate tax). Far better to address spending, to propose difficult (and certainly hard) reductions where possible, and to offer innovative ideas on how to harmonize local government and federal spending so that the cumulative burden is lessened.

Oops, Invaded Wrong Country

If we really wanted to remove a regime that is a cancer in the heart of the Middle East, maybe our troops US should have paid a visit to Iran.

FURTHER UPDATE: An interesting cultural sidenote. While living in London, I found the differences in coverage of the Middle East instructive and surprising. This story provides a useful example. The New York Times headline is "Iran’s President Says ‘Israel Must be Wiped Off the Map." I thought I would check out reportage on the story from the Beeb. Their header is: "Israel Warns of Tehran Danger." Perhaps all very innocent sounding to the average reader, but more complicated when one knows that the Beeb is generally critical of Israel, and the British public more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians than the Israelis (if public opinion polls are to be believed). Odd, in that light, to lead with Israel’s reaction, not the comments of Ahmadinejad, which are horrifying.

EVEN FURTHER UPDATE: Top story on Ahmadinejad’s comments on Beeb now sports this headline: "Iran Leader’s Words ‘Sicken’ UK." Better, that.

Very Devastating, If True

NYT reports in the Tuesday edition that Cheney told Libby about "Valerie Flame."

If true, the beginning of something big, big, big.

Ruh Roh, Tylenol Scare

Will be very interesting to see if this little nugget breaks out and gets attention.

I was at a company that was accused of privacy violations. Real was hammered because our RealJukebox 2.0 player had a GUID — globally unique identifier, or GUID — which theoretically could have been used to track individual listening habits. We hadn’t informed our customers of this feature, and thus could not have gotten informed consent from them to enable it. And though the GUID was never used to track individual listening habits, and the RealJukebox and RealPlayer were quickly patched to remove the GUIDs altogether and any possibility of this occuring, the fact that the feature was ever included without disclosure to — and informed consent from — our customers understandably troubled many, many people.

We went through a searing, painful, good faith soul-searching after that. We apologized to our customers. We were deeply embarrassed that this mistake could have ever happened. We put processes in place thereafter to scrutinize every service and product we subsequently built to ensure there were no real or apparent privacy violations. But our efforts at being purer-than-pure didn’t matter by that point; the damage with many consumers and customers had been done during a two-week firestorm. Opinions had already been set in stone, and it would be difficult if not impossible to change them. Forever.

And here lies Google’s potential hazard with web accelerator — they run the risk of creating an appearance of violating users’ privacy, regardless of how pure they may think they are being with regard to the actual facts. They appear to disclose what they’re collecting with GWA. But the fact that they’re collecting this data at all will prove troubling to many folks. Even if they are legally, technically within the bounds of accepted online privacy behaviors, many may wonder why they really need to collect data from third party sites their customers visit and cache that data. And once that questioning starts, it is hard to put an end to it.

Do Not Debate It, Not Here, Not Now

Yes, so very predictable indeed this response to Nicholas Carr’s piece:

Predictably, the backlashers are trying to make their marks and get
their linkjuice by arguing that this web/citizens/blog thing just ain’t
what it’s being blown up to be. But so much of the antihype is even
sillier than the hype.

This the lede on Buzzmachine.  I guess if someone asks good, hard, provocative questions, or questions they hype of the day, they’re just "curmudgeons" seeking "their linkjuice."  I, for one, appreciate Carr’s piece and found it provocative.

Jarvis is right about one thing — in the end, the market should determine who wins out in the media space and we the customers should (and probably will) decide.

Here is my "customer" feedback so far:

  • For general news, political commentary, political analysis, essays on current events, I find that traditional media remain the most satisfying by far. And let me be clear, by "traditional" I don’t mean print; I am talking about the "form factor" and I mean linear, narrative and even didactic forms of media, whether fulfilled by newspapers, magazines, and the like, in print or their digitized versions online. Exhibit A right of satisfying reportage for me right now is Dexter Wilkins piece in this weekend’s NYT Magazine. I keep looking for material on the top blogs that is as engaging and informative, with little success so far. (For what it’s worth, I wrote about this somewhat in this post earlier.)
  • I find Jarvis’s blog, and others like it, a little bit like popcorn. Fun to consume while I’m doing something else, but not very filling at the end of the day. I think it has something to do with both the nature of the medium (breezy, conversational, hyper-linked) and the bloggers’ choice of topics. In general, I find most of the blog writing by top "general interest" bloggers like Jarvis self-referential, both in choice of topic and presentation. "I-am-a-flack" for me and my friends.
  • I find the best industry and trade blogs, particularly those that focus on the industry I’m in (digital media) invaluable and far better than what I get through traditional trade media. I could provide a long list here, but I’ll cite Om Malik as he does it best.
  • I enjoy the occasional, personal blog that offers interesting observation and information of the kind I just wouldn’t find anywhere else. Again, too many examples to list here but top of mind is a post I saw on Matt Webb’s blog this morning.

I continue to find much satisfaction as a reader consuming well-crafted, informative, narrative reportage. I don’t see that kind of material being produced by blog writers now, and until that happens continuously and reliably, I hope the institutions that produce it will find a way to survive.

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