Updates from April, 2006 Hide threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • Gore for President 

    epigonic 10:24 am on April 24, 2006 Permalink |

    There have been appreciative articles about Al Gore in the print media (David Remnick, in his Talk of the Town piece in the New Yorker last week) and some prominent points in the blogosphere (Kottke and Weinberger).  With some luck and with some planning, maybe it will turn into a movement to draft Gore in 2008.

    Remnick asks in his piece:    

    If you are inclined to think that the unjustly awarded election of 2000
    led to one of the worst Presidencies of this or any other era, it is
    not easy to look at Al Gore. He is the living reminder of all that
    might not have happened in the past six years (and of what might still
    happen in the coming two). Contrary to Ralph Nader’s credo that there
    was no real difference between the major parties, it is close to
    inconceivable that the country and the world would not be in far better
    shape had Gore been allowed to assume the office that a plurality of
    voters wished him to have. One can imagine him as an intelligent and
    decent President, capable of making serious decisions and explaining
    them in the language of a confident adult. Imagining that alternative
    history is hard to bear, which is why Gore always has the courtesy, in
    his many speeches, and at the start of “An Inconvenient Truth,” to
    deflect that discomfort with a joke: “Hello, I’m Al Gore and I used to
    be the next President of the United States.”

    We live in a dangerous time — easily the most dangerous in half a century. There have been terrific op-eds by elder statesmen in the past few days that underscore this notion: one today from Max Kampelman, a former Reagan arms negotiator, and another from Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., JFK’s historian-in-residence and aide-de-camp. This feels like a momentous pivot point in our nation’s history, something not unlike 1860 or 1932. We were fortunate then that we had leaders who were principled, with strong convictions, but also able and willing to think through problems, not just apply ideology to them.

    As I look at the current crop of potential leaders — both Democrats and Republicans — the choices are pretty meager. We have no shortage of candidates who are interested in power for power’s sake, and most willing to compromise their principles to get it (McCain and H. Clinton), and a whole crop of others we know won’t be up to the job (George Allen, John Kerry, and the list goes on).

    Gore seems principled and strategic, qualities in short supply in the current White House.

     

  • Yahoo’s China Problem 

    epigonic 8:05 pm on April 19, 2006 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment

    Today, we learn Yahoo! Hong Kong provided materials from of one of its users, including a draft e-mail he stored on a Yahoo! server, to a Beijing tribunal that led to his imprisonment.

    This is immoral and wrong, plain and simple. Let's not tolerate any nonsense from Terry Semel or other Yahoos that they did this because they have to comply with local Chinese laws.

    They have choices, including these two options:

    1. Just say no. Have they tried that?

    2. Stop offering services that can potentially entrap their users — users, by the way, who are being imprisoned just for committing their opinions to 0s and 1s stored on Yahoo servers. Stop providing services that can be traced to an individual, or that require any personally identifiable information, and that will ultimately be used by the Chinese government to hunt down dissenting voices and to put them away. Google, while it doesn't have totally clean hands, has effectively made this decision.

    If Yahoo! doesn't take a firm step here, I'd support action by the government (the US government) to force it and other US-based companies to change behaviors. No more selling technologies that help build the Great Wall. No more provisioning of services that can serve as the handmaiden to the Chinese government investigative agencies.

    Interested to hear what Yahoo! says about this. My cynical prediction: more of the same, it's not our fault, we have to comply with local laws, blah blah blah. As I've written before, an argument made by IBM, in the 1930s (and for decades afterwards), to justify their work compiling lists of Jews for the Nazis with their then-newfangled machines. Yes, this isn't of the same magnitude, but it's damned close on the continuum, and Yahoo (and its employees, all of them) should be ashamed.

     

  • China and Iran and Grand Strategy 

    epigonic 6:05 pm on April 17, 2006 Permalink |

    I hope that Iran and nuclear (that’s nucular to you, Mr. President) proliferation are on the agenda during Hu Jintao’s visit to the US.

    I don’t see how we can have a Grand Strategy for Iran or other potential, future problem states that want nuclear tech without thinking through the China angle. 

    I suspect China is reasonably happy to have us worry about this issue. Think about it from their perspective.  If you were Hu, and you were trying to devise your 30-year plan vis-a-vis the predominant global superpower, and your plans to achieve global supremacy by, say, 2040, you’d want to do two things:

    1. Make them (meaning, us) feel less threatened now by your rise, with a "peaceful" rise slogan and program that the Chinese are vigorously promoting. That’s their #1 message this visit.

    2. Keep that other, incumbent superpower (again, that’s us, the US) off-balance by not doing anything much about problem states like Iran and North Korea.

    Sure, I get that part of what drives China’s unwillingness to grapple with Iran in particular is that they want to keep the oil flowing to drive their economy. But, be real, it’s ideal for them to have the US bogged down with yet another international crisis, depleting our treasury, taking focus away from dealing with our domestic problems, and allowing the internal rot to worsen. Invest in roads, schools, our health care systems, fostering our technology industries? Hard to do when we’re spending money on lots of foreign adventures and lowering taxes and increasing our debt and debt obligations.

    Of course, because we adopted our Pre-emptive Unilateralism grand strategy a few years ago, back when we still believed Chalabi’s assurances we’d be greeted in Iraq with flowers and cheers, we’ve boxed ourselves into a corner when it comes to actually pressuring China to help out on this and to behave more responsibly.

    We have an uphill battle with the Europeans, who we’ve blown off and told we don’t need or want. Besides, they don’t want to piss off the Chinese, especially the French and Germans, who are too busy trying to sell them as much stuff as they can (including arms, someday). The Japanese have to tread carefully. So we’re on our own.

    You keep going back to those weeks and months after 9/11 — when there was sympathy and potential for unity of action among democratic nations and governments, particularly those in the West — and what we could have done differently. What George 41 might have done, for example (not to mention Al Gore).  We might have tightened our Atlantic Alliance in particular, and been in a position to force China to engage more productively on these issues with the combined economic weight of Europe, the United States, and maybe other economies like Brazil and India.

    Now all we can do is just jaw-jaw. They’ll nod politely, use their WTO membership to keep sending us lots of cheap goods, keep working to drive a wedge between us and the Europeans, and happliy ignore Ahmadinejad and his fellow crazies.

     

  • Great Time to Start a Company 

    epigonic 8:33 pm on April 15, 2006 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment

    Since last Fall, at the Web 2.0 conference, or maybe even last spring, the "new bubble" meme has been gathering momentum among digerati. Like night following day, it has been followed by the "bad time to do a start-up" meme, captured best by these two posts.

    I more or less agree with everything Caterina Fake writes in her post, and the list David Hornik posts is frightening even though it doesn't even begin to capture all of the start-up activity out there.

    So, why the headline? Because I think there is a counter-intuitive argument to be made that the tail of an expanding bubble oftent provides a great environment for disciplined entrepreneurs and start-ups, and I think the tail-end of this mini-bubble is six to twelve months away.

    There are two points to make here. First, take a look at the list Hornik provides. In addition to the length of the list, what is most stunning is that, if you look deeply at many of these companies, many are trying to do the exact same thing, chasing after a very small number of opportunities, and solving just a few significant consumer problems. Most of them have not through their business models or strategies. And, in many instances, they are going after the exact same audiences — there is an amazing amount of activity concentrated around the under-24 segment right now, for example.

    So ironically, despite the super-abundance of start-ups, there remains a decent amount of "white space" — i.e., entrepreneurial opportunities to solve real, significant problems for real people. Disciplined entrepreneurs will find and discover this white-space, stay focused, and learn to treat this incessant buzz of activitity as the white noise it is. And, they can be confident that 90% of these lemming-like start-ups will fail and run out of money in the next 12 to 24 months, and the list probably won't be as extensive in two years time as it is now. Remember the difference between, say, January 2000 and July 2001?

    (As an aside, there is an interesting sociological post to be written about why this is so. I think it's basically because alpha geek culture, in many respects, can be monolithic and lemming-like during bubble-periods like this one. Many of the folks doing these start-ups read the same blogs, talk to the same small group of people, go to the same conferences, and get consumed with a limited set of problems. Blogging and services like Flickr give us the ability to watch and document all this from the comfort of our couches).

    The second point is one I make with less confidence, with just some anecdotal recollection from the last bubble/boom for support, but which I think is true and that others could support with more detailed evidence. And that is that the height or tail end of a bubble is a great time to get financing. The valuations are better, the entrepeneur can raise more money with less dilution, and potentially have more in the bank to get through the dire times — which will come again with certainty.

    While it was certainly a great time to start a company in 2001-2003 — there was such a dearth of activity, and doing just about anything was interesting — it was hard to raise money, and nearly impossible to do so with advantageous valuations.

    So this coming period seems to me to offer, potentially, the best of both worlds. It's a pretty decent time to try to raise money, it seems, and there are plenty of interesting opportunities out there. This happened in the last bubble period. Google is clearly exhibit A for this during the last boom — it raised a bunch of cash at a decent valuation at the height of the bubble, focused on an idea that was deeply out of favor with the reigning digerati at the time, stayed focused, survived the bust with their cash, and we all know what happened after that. While Google was certainly the most spectacular example of this, I can, as I sit here typing, think of at least half a dozen other similar outcomes.

     

  • Great Time to Start a Company 

    epigonic 1:33 pm on April 15, 2006 Permalink |

    Since last Fall, at the Web 2.0 conference, or maybe even last spring, the “new bubble” meme has been gathering momentum among digerati. Like night following day, it has been followed by the “bad time to do a start-up” meme, captured best by these two posts.

    I more or less agree with everything Caterina Fake writes in her post, and the list David Hornik posts is frightening even though it doesn’t even begin to capture all of the start-up activity out there.

    So, why the headline? Because I think there is a counter-intuitive argument to be made that the tail of an expanding bubble oftent provides a great environment for disciplined entrepreneurs and start-ups, and I think the tail-end of this mini-bubble is six to twelve months away.

    There are two points to make here. First, take a look at the list Hornik provides. In addition to the length of the list, what is most stunning is that, if you look deeply at many of these companies,  many are trying to do the exact same thing, chasing after a very small number of opportunities, and solving just a few significant consumer problems. Most of them have not through their business models or strategies. And, in many instances, they are going after the exact same audiences  — there is an amazing amount of activity concentrated around the under-24 segment right now, for example.

    So ironically, despite the super-abundance of start-ups, there remains a decent amount of “white space” — i.e., entrepreneurial opportunities to solve real, significant problems for real people. Disciplined entrepreneurs will find and discover this white-space, stay focused, and learn to treat this incessant buzz of activitity as the white noise it is. And, they can be confident that 90% of these lemming-like start-ups will fail and run out of money in the next 12 to 24 months, and the list probably won’t be as extensive in two years time as it is now. Remember the difference between, say, January 2000 and July 2001?

    (As an aside, there is an interesting sociological post to be written about why this is so. I think it’s basically because alpha geek culture, in many respects, can be monolithic and lemming-like during bubble-periods like this one. Many of the folks doing these start-ups read the same blogs, talk to the same small group of people, go to the same conferences, and get consumed with a limited set of problems. Blogging and services like Flickr  give us the ability to watch and document all this from the comfort of our couches).

    The second point is one I make with less confidence, with just some anecdotal recollection from the last bubble/boom for support, but which I think is true and that others could support with more detailed evidence. And that is that the height or tail end of a bubble is a great time to get financing. The valuations are better, the entrepeneur can raise more money with less dilution, and potentially have more in the bank to get through the dire times — which will come again with certainty.

    While it was certainly a great time to start a company in 2001-2003 — there was such a dearth of activity, and doing just about anything was interesting — it was hard to raise money, and nearly impossible to do so with advantageous valuations.

    So this coming period seems to me to offer, potentially, the best of both worlds.  It’s a pretty decent time to try to raise money, it seems,  and there  are plenty of interesting opportunities out there. This happened in the last bubble period. Google is clearly exhibit A for this during the last boom — it raised a bunch of cash at a decent valuation at the height of the bubble, focused on an idea that was deeply out of favor with the reigning digerati at the time, stayed focused, survived the bust with their cash, and we all know what happened after that.  While Google was certainly the most  spectacular example of this, I can, as I sit here typing, think of at least half a dozen other similar outcomes.

     

  • Snarf Worthy 

    epigonic 5:11 pm on April 12, 2006 Permalink |

    On Dooce today, a selection of the tastiest comments from her readership. Brilliant.

    Including this comment from a fan, one Dooce calls “RachelN”:

    you know, i was gonna just send an email to say that you’re the
    offspring of people having sex with animals..but that really is
    digressive isn’t it. my goodness, this is really immature, no?

    all in all, women like you seriously have no business having kids at
    this juncture. i’m sure you love your girl, but kids need more than
    love. they need happy, mature parents.

    And Dooce’s commentary:

    [I didn’t have a response to this email because I was too high from the cocaine I just snorted off Leta’s bare tummy.]

     

  • Video, It’s Just a Datatype 

    epigonic 11:09 pm on April 6, 2006 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment

    There have been lot’s of comments recently about the number of video services and sites launching, best captured today in Arrington’s blog with this headline:

    “Online Video Sites: Breeding Like Rabbits”

    Yes, and the point is? Look, video is a datatype, arguably the most important datatype. As our pipes get fatter, it’s natural there will be many, many more video sites and services. Saying there are many video sites now being launched is a little like saying there were many text sites launched in 1996.

    The more important point — which is a problem with the renewed frothy environment for entrepreneurs — is that so many of these sites and services are doing exactly the same thing. There are dozens of sites trying to be the second most popular YouTube (which in turn was critized for being yet another Web 2.0 company when it launched, especially with its “flickr for video” mantra). There are now a significant number of “editing” companies coming online. And we’ll soon see more and more “del.icio.us for video” plays.

    The fundamental questions all of these services have to answer remain the same:

    1. What is the real problem (some) people have that they solve?

    2. How will they make money solving that problem?

    3. How will they distinguish their solution from competitors, how will they offer something better?

    I would argue that some of these new services answer the first question, but most and maybe all fail to answer the second and third questions. Even YouTube.

    In my mind, there remain many interesting and challenging problems that still need to be addressed in the video space. And so, ironically, there remain lots of opportunities for entrepreneurs who think through all three questions, despite the fact video services “breeding like rabbits.”

     

  • Kids, Media, Internet 

    epigonic 4:28 am on April 6, 2006 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment

    I thought this post from Doc Searls today was pretty much dead on:

    I think letting small children watch TV is like giving them Quaaludes. I also think kids in their most formative years need to interact with each other, nature, and themselves. They need to read and play and feed their curiousity about the world. They need to use their minds and their bodies to explore the Real World.

    Is the Net real too? I don't think anybody loves the Net more than I do; but I don't want my kid doing much more than using it as an educational resource every once in awhile. If you're going to get sucked into an activity, let it be reading a book, shooting baskets or playing an instrument.

     

  • A Most Bogus Argument in the Immigration Debate 

    epigonic 10:41 pm on April 5, 2006 Permalink |

    I have been following the debate over the proposed immigration “reforms” and find it incredibly difficult to decide which side(s) are right.

    One of the things I love, and I think most people love, the most about this country has been its willingness to take in peoples from all over the world, to give them a home, to give them opportunities they might not otherwise have. But on the other hand, I’m also in agreement with the argument that there have to be limits, for any number of purely practical reasons.

    I am sympathetic to the belief that there is a natural migration pattern between Central America, Mexico, and the United States, and that a guest worker provision will help to preserve and enable that migration pattern.
     But I agree with those who worry that allowing large numbers of unskilled workers to work in the country will depress the wages for many workers, particularly lower income laborers without a high school education or specific skills.

    But the one thing I do know, pretty unequivocally, is that the condemnation of protesters carrying Mexican flags is bogus, a red-herring, and really pretty despicable.  Do we get upset when Italian Americans fly the Italian flag on Columbus Day? Or when Irish Americans fly their banners on St. Patrick’s Day? Or when Greeks display their flag in their neighborhoods? No, because we know that it’s a display of affection for their culture and their roots.

    I think the same thing is going on here.

     

  • Honoring the Origins of Web 2.0 

    epigonic 9:05 pm on April 1, 2006 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment

    In the somewhat behind-the-curve piece in Newsweek this week about web 2.0 companies like flickr and MySpace, it was nice to see some small bit of credit given to eBay. I think there is a credible, and probably correct, argument to be made that most of the things we consider new and unique about these web 2.0 companies — even many aspects of the "live web" notion that is being pushed as new — were thought up and implemented by Pierre Omidyar, in his house, in 1995 and 1996 as he gave birth to eBay. All this is well documented in "The Perfect Store."

    Another person who deserves some credit for pushing the right meme early on is Bill Gates. In "The Road Ahead" he (in his own later words)

    used the term friction-free capitalism to describe how the Internet was helping to create Adam Smith's ideal marketplace, in which buyers and sellers can easily find one another without taking much time or spending much money.

    I've never seen any evidence to suggest that Gates' thinking ever influenced Omidyar in his early work on getting eBay (then AuctionWeb) launched. But clearly they were thinking along the same lines.

    It's interesting that Gates understood this so well, so early on, but that Microsoft failed to capitalize in any significant way on his insights.

     

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