Apple’s Big iPad Mistake

When Apple launched the initial iPod in 2001, they made two critical strategic decisions:

  • They focused on providing really great PC support on iTunes, and made the iPod a great device for PCs and Macs (remember, the Mac was not yet ascendant as a laptop); and
  • They supported MP3s

People bought (and loved) the iPod because it allowed them to take music they already had (through Napster, or that they’d ripped). The iPod became a dominant force in music by embracing and supporting an existing landscape (the PC, MP3), not by trying to circumvent that landscape (or trying to create an alternate reality right off-the-bat). People forget all this now, but the iTunes Store didn’t arrive until 18 months later; and only the huge wave of initial support for the iPod assured it would be a success. Apple changed the music industry paradigm only after they got tons of people to buy iPods, and they got people to buy iPods by making a great device that worked with MP3s they had on their PCs.

Turn to today’s launch. This was Steve Jobs’ lede today at the iPad unveiling:

You can browse the Web with it. It’s the best browsing experience you’ve ever had.

Indeed, the Internet should be without doubt the killer app (initially) for the iPad.  What a joy to sit on a couch, or bed, or plane, or train with an iPad, using natural touch gestures to navigate and browse the web. I would buy this thing in a heartbeat if I could do that — everything else (iBooks, movies and video, games) would be gravy.

So what gives? Well, turns out you can’t truly browse the web with the iPad.

By ignoring Flash, Apple has basically made most of the web broken, as so clearly illustrated by the screenshot of their demo of the front page of the NY Times! It’s not just 10,000s sites which provide their videos in Flash (Hulu, yes, but also CNN, MSNBC, MTV, Comedy Central, BBC, and many, many more), but it’s the millions of flash widgets and other interactive elements on the page.  To get a sense, try this experiment — remove Flash from your computer, and start browsing around. If your web experience is unimpaired, maybe you’ll like the iPad. But I think most people will think: “Who broke the damn Internet?”

The iPad did, that’s who.

Now, I’ve seen some arguments today that this misses the point — that Apple isn’t just satisfied with replicating your standard web video experience, that they want to transform the entire video business.  Ryan Lawler at NewTeeVee argues:

The iPad will cause ripples in multiple industries — including news, book publishing and gaming — but at the end of the day, I’m betting that what the iPad will be used for more than anything is watching video. Like the iPod, it’s only a matter of time before the iPad becomes the defining product with which to consume that type of media.

Could be. But they have to sell a ton of iPads first. And, by not embracing the existing landscape — the tens of thousands of video sites that provide hundreds of millions of videos encoded in Flash — they’ve cut off a natural, intial reason to buy and to use the device (and yes, I know all about HTML 5 video, and no the iPad is not going to cause a stampede to that overnight). If I have to choose between a lightweight, fully functional wireless enabled laptop that works well on every web site and that allows me to watch videos from Hulu and Netflix and a gazillion other places, and an iPad that doesn’t support Flash or any site that  uses Flash and only lets me watch videos from iTune and YouTube, which am I gonna use?

Simple. I’ll stick with my Macbook for now, thanks.

Eff off, Frank Rich, You Pusillanimous Moron

This is a rant about the rants.

Today, Frank Rich lets loose another tirade against President Obama. Among the commentariat of the Left, penning an anti-Obama tirade is all the rage — Paul Krugman, Arianna Huffington, and others have all become expert practitioners at this craft.

I don’t get it. Even if you assume their attacks have merit (and I don’t think that they have any) I don’t see what good they do. It’s bogus, and stupid.

Given everything Obama has had to face — foremost among the many pressing crises, a devastating economic collapse — he’s done a damned good job. He got Congress to pass the biggest fiscal stimulus since the 1930s. His Treasury Department undertook sensible, prudent efforts to manage the banking meltdown (and showed guts not to listen to the hand-wringers calling for nationalization like Paul Krugman). History will show both of those moves plus action by the Fed probably staved off a Great Depression II.

He’s unleashed a slate of smaller bore efforts — projects on green technology in the Energy Department, and the “Race to the Top” initiative from the Education Department — that are both real, substantive, truly progressive and full of positive longer-term impact.

Through persistence and patience, he got the Senate and the House to pass — for the first time, ever, in our country’s history — comprehensive health care reform legislation. That obviously isn’t done yet, new hurdles have been put in the way — but really, what President has done more to get this passed since FDR?

And, not all all unimportantly, he’s completely changed our military and foreign policy. His decision on Afghanistan may obscure this for some, but the place and role of America in the world is completely different than it was 13 months ago.

The most common complaint I hear about Obama from friends (who support him) is “He hasn’t done enough.” Or  “He can’t get stuff done.” Despite the list above, which is hardly comprehensive. I think what’s happening in part is that everyone assumed the election would be the hard part, that the rest would be a cakewalk. That with 59 or 60 Senators and a strong majority in the House that Obama could just proclaim change and that it would happen. And that the country would feel blessed.

People who are adults, with any sense of history or perspective, know this just isn’t the way the world or our country works. The fight continues, always. You pick a team, stay loyal to it, and work through your personal disappointments if you want to try to accomplish something.

Republicans are real good at this. Sadly, too many Democrats and their supporters like Frank Rich suck at it. And that’s what will bring down President Obama — not some conspiracy from the Right. Too bad, you have only yourselves to blame.

UPDATE: Two things I should have added to the list — the auto company bailout last year (an incredible success given the daunting challenges) and the new bank regulations proposed by Obama this past week. Good coverage on the latter here from Daniel Gross on Slate.

Obama on MLK — January 17, 2010

Another one for the ages.

more about "Obama on MLK — January 17, 2010", posted with vodpod

Not about censorship

Henry Blodget posts this morning about Google & China, and claims they’re getting out because of China’s “censorhip.”

Let’s review the facts again, as Google alleges them to be:

  • Google discovered attacks on it’s servers originating from Taiwan, and traced those back to mainland China
  • They apparently had good reason to believe the attacks were driven by the government
  • The attacks were designed to steal information from personal accounts of Chinese human rights activitists that were stored on Google’s servers (and those of other companies)

Sorry, that’s something more than censorship. And if you don’t draw a line against this kind of behavior, it’s wrong and weak and immoral.

About Rob Glaser

News today that Rob Glaser is stepping down as CEO of RealNetworks after sixteen years at the helm.

I think it’s probably fair — and maybe even an understatement — to say that within the technology industry, Rob has not always been beloved. I’m sure plenty of people will offer their opinions about what he did right, wrong, and could have done better at Real.

I worked with Rob at Real from 1997 to 2004. I haven’t kept up with Real these past five years, and haven’t kept in touch with Rob the last couple of years. But I also think — no, know — that Rob has not always been as well-understood or appreciated as he should be, and wanted to set down my perspective for what it’s worth.

First of all — what a fighter and survivor. It’s hard enough to be an entrepreneur, to pioneer not only a new technology but a business, and to build a company out of that and to take it public. Harder still to do that for a decade, let alone sixteen years.

But imagine the difficulty when the richest company in the world, a ruthless and entrenched monopoly, decides to crush your business. For this is what Real faced starting in 1998, when Microsoft began a systematic attack against Real’s core business — audio and video streaming. Rob not only hung tough, but pushed the company to pivot, and through sheer will forced it to reinvent itself and to stay afloat despite the attacks from the Borg.

Among technology leaders the past decade, only Jim Clark and Marc Andreessen really have any clue what it was like to face Microsoft head-on, at it’s most ruthless and at the height of its powers (we forget what they were like in our Age of Google, they seem so defanged). And let history note that they threw in the towel (selling Netscape to AOL).

Second, Rob is one of those rare CEOs and entrepreneurs who really is interesting and interested; a polymath who is curious (and often well-informed) about music, politics, economics, science. It was always a treat to talk with him, and the talk was often about things other than work. My partner Janet made an interesting point about Rob to me years ago — that he almost never talked about himself, but instead wanted to talk with you and about you. Truly a rarity when compared to the ego-centric and ego-filled technology world.

Third, in my time at Real, and in particular in my first few years there, he assembled an awfully interesting and talented group of folks.  Folks like Maria Cantwell (now a US Senator), Philip Rosedale (founder of SecondLife), Ian Freed (who now runs the Kindle effort), and literally dozens of others who have gone on to interesting entrepreneurial adventures of their own, or who serve in very senior roles at renowned media and technology companies. This wasn’t an accident, and it was Rob who drew so many interesting, talented folks to Real over the years.

*****

An emblematic sicknesses of our culture these past 10-15 years — and one that has particularly afflicted those of us who are entrepreneurs, technology writers, and investors — has been our unhealthy celebration of P. T. Barnum’s who have done not much more than flip bad assets to unwitting buyers. Someone who sells their company for a couple hundred million, or a few billion, and pockets most of it becomes a hero in our world. Even if their company is dismantled within months or proved worthless. Even if their employees subsequently lose their jobs. Even if the stockholders in the acquiring company lose their shirts.

Whereas someone who sticks at a job for sixteen years, keeps his troops employed, keeps his company alive — well, we don’t show much admiration then.

I’m sure Rob Glaser made his share of mistakes. Don’t we all? But he helped to birth a foundation technology for the internet; he built a company, took it public and came to work every day for sixteen years through thick and thin. That’s damned honorable in my book.

Google & China

Big news from Google today announcing a “new approach to China” as a result of cyber attacks they’ve launched against Google and others. The news is early and incomplete, and we’ll certainly learn more in the coming days.

But reaction seems to be divided in to these two camps (roughly):

  • Wow, Google is so great and they really aren’t evil

OR

  • Wow, what a cynical ploy by Google to cover up the fact Baidu is kicking their ass

I haven’t seen anyone really grappling with the astonishing facts Google alleges. Here’s a taste from their post:

First, this attack was not just on Google. As part of our investigation we have discovered that at least twenty other large companies from a wide range of businesses–including the Internet, finance, technology, media and chemical sectors–have been similarly targeted….

Second, we have evidence to suggest that a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists

In short: China apparently initiated cyber attacks against Google and apparently other corporations and institutions to help them hunt down human rights activists. If that’s true, it’s wrong, offensive, and reprehensible.  And people should say so, without equivocation.

Now, there are China apologists out there already beginning the lectures: “That’s not how you do business in China.” “Google should know better and do this behind closed doors.” Having spent some time in China this decade, I’ve heard that lecture a zillion times. And I understand and appreciate it when it comes to normal and quotidien matters of business.

But this isn’t about setting up a tire factory or arranging to manufacture gadgets. This is about the government of China (or so Google alleges) launching cyber attacks against companies and institutions in other countries as part of an effort to crack down  on their own citizens and their effort to secure basic human freedoms — of religion, speech, organization.

As I’ve written before on this blog, this is a defining moral issue of our time if you’re a technologist, tech writer, or member in some other way of this community. I love to see the world in grays, but this is one of those issues that is purely black and white. And if you in any way side with China, or advocate a position that excuses their behavior — well, I think that’s just utterly immoral and you should be ashamed.

Thank You Mr. President

There’s been a lot of screeching about Obama the past month. From the Left — “he’s a sellout” or “a corporate tool.” And from the right — “socialist” and “soft on terror” and the usual epithets conservatives reserve for people they think are liberal.

I’ve got a lot more to write about this at some point, but wanted to say now just this: all these critics just look so small and pathetic and puny compared to Obama. Especially on a day like today, where he mans up, accepts responsibility for various failures in the government, and focuses on what’s to be learned (rathern than who is to be blamed).

Not a day goes by that I don’t thank God that he’s our President. What a relief after the last 40 years.

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