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Who Disrupts TV?

A few months ago, @monkbent (Ben Thompson) had a good series of posts about the disruption of TV.  In his last post of the series, he looked at television through the prism of Clayton Christensen’s “jobs-to-be-done” framework: What are the jobs we hire TV to do? [1]

The disruption to TV will happen, Ben argued, when different services come along that do these same jobs better and more cheaply.

It’s a handy framework for thinking through what the future of TV might look like, and applying it some of the disruptors start to come into focus.

For example, many of us have already hired Hulu+ and Netflix — with their reasonably deep catalogs of  on-demand movies and TV shows — to entertain us in the evenings and on weekends. [2] As both of these services continue to grow their subscriber bases, they’ll be able to take on the other jobs cable networks do — fund the creation of great, compelling, original shows. Indeed, Netflix has already had success with House of Cards and Orange is the New Black.

Some people have hired services in completely different categories  — games (on phones or consoles) and social networks (on phones, computers) especially.

At Showyou we’ve felt for a long while that the biggest, most likely disruptive force would be the the massive amount of online programming that is finally being made available on screens we actually use in the evenings and on the weekend — the television and new television-replacement screens (tablets, especially, but also PCs and mobile phones).

That makes YouTube another obvious potential winner in the contest to disrupt TV. And indeed YouTube already accounts for 17% of downstream traffic in the evening  over “fixed access” networks (broadband wires coming into our homes).

But for many, using YouTube instead of TV still feels like too much work, with too little payoff; too much leaning forward when you want to lean back. The conceit of “video discovery” services has been that if you could just organize all this, they’d be among the winners, but that hasn’t happened yet. [3]

Whether you are YouTube or a startup, we think you have to do the following to have a shot at bringing the bounty of the Internet, and disrupting TV as a result:

1. Make your service as easy as TV

A huge part of the appeal of the television is that we don’t have to think too hard. Grab the remote and your off. Stated in a different way: one of the jobs TV does is that it allows us not to think. Your service has to do that too, or it won’t be hired.

2. Focus on “the what” not the “how”

People need to know what specific job they’re hiring you to do. When you say you’re delivering “videos picked by friends,” or “videos from your social networks,” you’re describing the how, not the what. Give people a reliable, tangible, concrete way to understand the programming they’re going to get to watch; how I’m going to be entertained, inspired, or informed by the programming. [4]

3. There is no first screen

People will expect your service to be everywhere. We may still turn to the television more than any other screen, but it’s hold on our lives is slipping with each passing month. There is no first screen anymore. In our house, most video viewing happens across iPads and PCs. The TV is only rarely on. That’s not the national norm, yet, but it’s most certainly the direction we’re headed.

4. Aggregation Wins

You need to deliver something of sufficient value and depth that people will want to use your service multiple times a week, for an hour or two at a time.

Netflix, Hulu, and YouTube of course all do this. The landscape favors aggregators. Not only for the depth of programming they offer, but also the consistency and quality of experience. The winners in this space will need to make simple, fun-to-use services across multiple platforms (iOS, Android, web, and connected tv devices) that connect and interoperate with other online services.

The great, unknown question is how many services we’ll hire to replace TV. That’s where the metaphor of “channels-becoming-apps” breaks down. It’s unlikely we’ll each hire 20-30 apps to replace TV. It seems more likely we’ll hire between 5-10; a few that do the job of giving us premium, subscription-funded TV shows & movies (Hulu+, Netflix, maybe Amazon Prime) and a few to help us watch the rest of the Internet.

The winners, whomever they are, will be giant businesses. The Time Warners, Disneys, News Corps of the future.

NOTES

1. I’d argue it’s this, mainly: To entertain us in the evenings and on the weekends; to give us a way to escape and to relax after a day at work or in school. Ben suggests other specific jobs: to educate us, to inform us, to give us live coverage of sports, and to story-tell.

2. You could be pedantic and argue that Netflix and Hulu aren’t really disrupting TV, they’re simply delivering TV over IP. But the disruption we’re talking about is of cable television and its cost & economic structure.  And Netflix and Hulu, even if they largely deliver traditional television and movie programming, provide a cheaper and better experience than television (watch when you want, on the device you want, where you want).

3. Hunter Walk and I discussed this in an online dialogue in the spring (read our dialogue here and here). Christensen’s “jobs to do” framework might be helpful here, too. It may sound counter-intuitive in this age of abundance, but it’s not clear “discovery” is not a job that needs doing. The problem isn’t that we don’t know what to watch; the problem is that there is too much we want to watch with too limited time. Another problem: media discovery — for video, music, news — speaks to the “how,” but what we want is the “what.” That may sound like sophistry, a semantic argument, but consider Pandora. People often describe it as music discovery. But Pandora consistently, emphatically talks about the what, not the how. That is an “Internet radio” service. The music genome algorithm that makes Pandora work — the discovery part — is a means, not the end.

4. One of the reasons we’ve focused so hard on “channels” with Showyou is to address this. We want you to know what you’re getting — a channel oriented around taste or point-of-view (from a person or publisher you follow on Showyou), or interest (more about this tomorrow).

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One thought on “Who Disrupts TV?

  1. Pingback: What We’re Building with Showyou | MHALLVILLE

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