Politics

A Quick Note on Electability

UPDATE: I wrote this before Romney dropped out. With him out of the race, things get even more dangerous for us Dems. McCain will be able to move more to the center, and ignore the wingnuts like Limbaugh and Hannity.

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If you’re voting in any of the upcoming primaries or caucuses, I think the only sensible way to make your decision is based on who you think will be the best President.

It’s foolish to consider electability.

That said, if you’re a wavering Clinton supporter, you might consider this data from the Missouri primary:

Some 35 percent of voters in Missouri say they have no particular
party loyalty, and the state allows voters to pick either party’s
primary ballot. On Tuesday, many more people voted in the Democratic Party race (823,754 ballots were counted) than in the Republican’s (589,173).

One-third
of the Democratic primary voters described themselves as independents,
according to exit polls, and they said they voted overwhelmingly for
Senator Barack Obama.

Will these same folks turn out in the same large numbers for Hillary in the Fall? If With McCain is as the nominee? With daily reminders of that the two-fer Clinton restoration will bring (i.e., Kazakhstan, Ron Burkle, Marc Rich, Lincoln Bedroom, etc)?

You might think John McCain will be easy to beat, or that the Republicans are down-and-out. If Hillary and McCain are the nominees, I’d say it’s 50-50. He’ll neutralize the Iraq issue among Independents. He’ll remind voters they both voted for the war, and ask them who is more likely to get us out. And he’ll have a decided advantage in terms of the appearance of integrity, especially with the press corps.

Don’t make a decision based on this. But if it gives you pause, do take the time to investigate the candidates further. Don’t fall for the shallow archetypes (Obama’s more inspirations, Hillary’s more substantive). Do your homework. Look at their records. See who has actually gotten more done.

And, if you think the war in Iraq was a mistake, ask yourself these questions.

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